Analisis Time Series dan Perancangan Dashboard untuk Memprediksi Penjualan dengan Metode Prophet dan SARIMAX
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55601/jsm.v26i2.1797Keywords:
time series, Prophet, SARIMAX, sales forecasting, dashboardAbstract
Penelitian ini membahas analisis data deret waktu untuk memprediksi penjualan menggunakan metode Prophet dan SARIMAX. Metode ini dipilih karena mampu menangani pola musiman, tren, dan faktor eksternal yang penting dalam memaksimalkan akurasi prediksi penjualan. Dataset Walmart dari periode 2012-2015 digunakan sebagai data utama, sementara data eksternal diambil dari Google Trends. Penelitian ini menggunakan kerangka kerja OSEMN yang meliputi pengumpulan, pembersihan, eksplorasi, pemodelan, dan interpretasi data. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan model SARIMAX lebih unggul pada skenario mingguan dan bulanan dengan MAPE sebesar 2,589% dan 0,930% dibandingkan model Prophet dengan MAPE sebesar 2,753% dan 1,045%. Hasil penelitian ini juga menunjukkan penambahan faktor eksogen pada kedua model ini tidak memberikan dampak yang signifikan dalam meningkatkan performa model. Hasil prediksi data penjualan divisualisasi melalui dashboard interaktif yang membantu pengguna memahami hasil prediksi secara intuitif.
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